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Northstar Skin · ClearSkin Daily Serum · India
Review structured hypotheses from the current performance signal. Human judgment remains the decision authority.
These values come from the M3 performance comparison, not from UI assumptions.
The account may be losing initial response because repeated creative exposure is reducing attention.
CTR deterioration appears earlier in the funnel, while CPM and CVR remain comparatively stable. This makes creative fatigue or audience saturation a stronger current hypothesis than a broad auction or landing-page change.
Working hypothesis only. This is not a confirmed fact.
5 of 5 named signals support this hypothesis. Medium requires multiple consistent signals. High also requires direct creative or segment evidence and weakened important alternatives.
Multiple consistent signals support this hypothesis, but important alternatives remain unresolved.
The current period has a material CTR decline against the previous period.
The CPM movement does not show a material cost increase in this comparison.
The CVR movement does not show a material post-click conversion decline.
The current period reached the audience more often than the previous period.
cr-11-progress-montage-video is above the current account CTR in the current period.
Each item points to a period snapshot, creative, or source row from the active dataset.
12 current rows and 11 previous rows.
Source periods: 17 Aug 2026 · 10 Aug 2026 · Seeded sample accountCurrent: 1.0% · Previous: 1.2%
Change: -19.9% vs previous
Current: Rs 189 · Previous: Rs 180
Change: +4.7% vs previous
Current: 2.0% · Previous: 1.9%
Change: +1.1% vs previous
Current: 1.79 · Previous: 1.58
Change: +13.1% vs previous
1.6% CTR versus 1.0% account CTR.
Creative cr-11-progress-montage-video · Transformation · 1 source row(s) · 17 Aug 2026 · Seeded sample accountWhy: This alternative is less plausible because the impression-cost movement is not material.
Supporting evidence: Frequency increased 13.1% versus the previous period.
Weakening evidence: CPM increased 4.7% versus the previous period.
Check: Break out CPM by audience, placement, device, and auction period.
Confirm: One audience or placement shows the same cost increase as the account. Reject: No segment shows a matching cost increase after volume checks.
Why: This alternative is less plausible because post-click conversion rate stayed near the previous period.
Supporting evidence: Purchases and landing-page views exist for both periods, so the post-click path can be checked.
Weakening evidence: CVR increased 1.1% versus the previous period.
Check: Compare landing-page views, checkout completion, offer, price, and stock by period.
Confirm: The post-click funnel changes in the same period as the CPA movement. Reject: The post-click funnel stays stable while the click response changes.
Why: This alternative remains uncertain because account rows cannot confirm event delivery or attribution windows.
Supporting evidence: A period comparison alone does not isolate purchase-event or attribution changes.
Weakening evidence: CTR and frequency are calculated from source rows, so not every signal depends on purchase tracking.
Check: Confirm purchase events, attribution windows, and source-row completeness for both periods.
Confirm: Event counts or attribution settings differ without a matching business change. Reject: Events and attribution settings reconcile with independent records.