Keep the diagnosis as a source explanation. Use the hypothesis as the statement that the next test can support or reject.
Hypothesis board
Select or create a testable belief
Selectedmedium confidence
Change the message order
We believe changing message order in the first creative signal may improve CTR because Creative fatigue or audience saturation is the current source diagnosis. The test uses Current period compared with previous period and CTR period comparison as its evidence base.
6 evidence references · Primary: CTR
Proposedmedium confidence
Refresh the first creative signal
We believe changing the first creative signal may improve CTR because Creative fatigue or audience saturation is the current source diagnosis. The test uses Current period compared with previous period and CTR period comparison as its evidence base.
6 evidence references · Primary: CTR
Testinglow confidence
Test a proof-led treatment
We believe changing the proof treatment shown before the CTA may improve CTR because Creative fatigue or audience saturation is the current source diagnosis. The test uses Current period compared with previous period and CTR period comparison as its evidence base.
6 evidence references · Primary: CTR
Selected hypothesis
Change the message order
Diagnosis explains a plausible cause. This hypothesis defines a testable belief and its measurement plan.
We believe changing message order in the first creative signal may improve CTR because Creative fatigue or audience saturation is the current source diagnosis. The test uses Current period compared with previous period and CTR period comparison as its evidence base.
Why
The current source diagnosis is “Creative fatigue or audience saturation.” CTR deterioration appears earlier in the funnel, while CPM and CVR remain comparatively stable. This makes creative fatigue or audience saturation a stronger current hypothesis than a broad auction or landing-page change. This hypothesis turns that diagnosis into a testable decision while keeping its evidence visible. Evidence references: Current period compared with previous period and CTR period comparison. Change only the message order and keep the controlled variables fixed.